Value bet: Mérida AD to win @ 2.55 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMérida AD to win ✗42% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.83
Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 24 April the Primera División RFEF Group 1 brings Arenas Getxo against Mérida AD at Estadio Municipal de Fadura. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Arenas Getxo are 19th, in the drop zone, on 11 points after 11 matches; Mérida AD are 8th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Arenas Getxo, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Pontevedra, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Mérida AD, last 4: WDLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Arenteiro, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arenas Getxo 1.2 xG, Mérida AD 1.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arenas Getxo 33%, draw 25%, Mérida AD 42%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Mérida AD to win @2.55 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arenas Getxo 1–1 Mérida AD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arenas Getxo33%fair 3.07 · @2.60
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.10
Mérida AD42%fair 2.36 · @2.55
2.78Expected goals
1.21Arenas Getxo xG
1.56Mérida AD xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Arenas Getxo 1.2 – 1.6 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Arenas Getxo
Mérida AD
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
-13%
+18%
Goals conceded vs average
+48%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.25
1.88
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win✗
42%
2.36
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.80
Draw no bet
Mérida AD (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Arenas Getxo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Mérida AD to score first✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD✗
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Arenas Getxo – last 5
WWDDW
8 Apr
vs Pontevedra
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Lugo
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Barakaldo
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 4
WDLW
19 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–4
L
22 Feb
vs Cacereño
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arenas Getxo and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Arenas Getxo have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mérida AD 42%.
How many goals will there be in Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Arenas Getxo 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
