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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Lorca Deportiva v Xerez Deportivo: numbers & prediction

Segunda División RFEF Group 4 · Spain · Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Lorca Deportiva

LW
1–0
FT

Xerez Deportivo

DLDD
Lorca Deportiva 48%Draw 28%Xerez Deportivo 24% Expected goals 1.27 – 0.96
76%
Betarazi pick

Lorca Deportiva or draw

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultLorca Deportiva to win ✓48% · @1.95
Double chanceLorca Deportiva or draw ✓76% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.01

Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 8 March the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 brings Lorca Deportiva against Xerez Deportivo at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT.

Current form

Xerez Deportivo, last 4: DLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Antoniano, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Lorca Deportiva 1.3 xG, Xerez Deportivo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 50%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Lorca Deportiva 48%, draw 28%, Xerez Deportivo 24%.
  • Lower-risk option: Lorca Deportiva or draw (76%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.20.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 50%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Lorca Deportiva or draw (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Xerez Deportivo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Lorca Deportiva48%fair 2.08 · @1.95
Draw28%fair 3.55 · @2.88
Xerez Deportivo24%fair 4.19 · @4.00
2.23Expected goals
1.27Lorca Deportiva xG
0.96Xerez Deportivo xG
50%Both score
38%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%

From our goals model: Lorca Deportiva 1.3 – 1.0 Xerez Deportivo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLorca Deportiva to win ✓48%2.081.95
Double chanceLorca Deportiva or draw ✓76%1.311.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗50%1.982.20 ▲
Draw no betLorca Deportiva (draw no bet) ✓67%1.50–
Asian handicapXerez Deportivo +1 (Asian handicap)74%1.35–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗65%1.53–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓62%1.63–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.23–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓92%1.08–
First team to scoreLorca Deportiva to score first ✓51%1.96–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓47%2.13–
Half-time / full-timeHT Lorca Deportiva / FT Lorca Deportiva ✗25%3.97–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.01–

Recent results

Lorca Deportiva – last 2

LW
1 Mar@ Extremadura 19240–3L
22 Febvs Antoniano1–0W
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Xerez Deportivo – last 4

DLDD
1 Mar@ Antoniano0–0D
25 Febvs Real Jaén1–3L
22 Febvs Extremadura 19240–0D
15 Feb@ Puente Genil1–1D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Lorca Deportiva and Xerez Deportivo.

Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo head-to-head page →

More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions

League hub
FT Almería II2 Extremadura 19242 125%4.10X26%3.30249%1.75 1.1–1.5xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 56%@1.62 ✗
FT Estepona3 La Unión Atlético2 145%2.20X26%2.88229%3.25 1.6–1.2xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 55%@1.50 ✗
FT Deportiva Minera3 Málaga II2 163%1.35X23%4.00214%9.00 1.8–0.9xG 1Deportiva Minera to win 63%@1.35 ✓
FT Melilla1 Antoniano1 155%1.83X27%3.10218%4.20 1.5–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 61%@1.50 ✓
FT Yeclano1 Ucam Murcia1 132%2.80X29%2.70239%2.62 1.1–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@2.25 ✓
FT Xerez1 Recreativo Huelva0 133%3.30X30%2.60236%2.30 1.0–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.30 ✗
FT Águilas3 Puente Genil1 149%1.62X29%3.20222%5.50 1.1–0.8xG NGNot both teams to score 54%@1.50 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?

Our pick is Lorca Deportiva or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?

On our numbers Lorca Deportiva have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Xerez Deportivo 24%.

How many goals will there be in Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?

Our predicted score is Lorca Deportiva 1–0 Xerez Deportivo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo?

Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.