Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDurango to win ✓68% · @1.22
Double chanceDurango or draw ✓89% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.41
Durango vs Leones Negros: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 17 February the Liga Premier Serie A brings Durango against Leones Negros at Estadio Francisco Zarco. Kick-off: 03:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Durango 2.2 xG, Leones Negros 0.8 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 53% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Durango 68%, draw 21%, Leones Negros 11%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Durango 2–0 Leones Negros. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Durango68%fair 1.46 · @1.22
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @5.00
Leones Negros11%fair 9.23 · @11.00
2.98Expected goals
2.19Durango xG
0.78Leones Negros xG
53%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Durango 2.2 – 0.8 Leones Negros expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Durango to win✓
68%
1.46
1.22
Double chance
Durango or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Durango (draw no bet)✓
86%
1.16
–
Asian handicap
Durango -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
First team to score
Durango to score first✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Durango ahead at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Durango / FT Durango✗
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Durango
No recent results on record.
Leones Negros
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Durango and Leones Negros.
What is the prediction for Durango vs Leones Negros?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Durango vs Leones Negros?
On our numbers Durango have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leones Negros 11%.
How many goals will there be in Durango vs Leones Negros?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Durango vs Leones Negros?
Our predicted score is Durango 2–0 Leones Negros, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Durango vs Leones Negros?
Durango vs Leones Negros (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Zarco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
