Value bet: Leones Negros to win @ 2.85 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTecos to win ✗40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.79
Tecos vs Leones Negros: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 27 March the Liga Premier Serie A brings Tecos against Leones Negros at Estadio Tres de Marzo. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT.
Current form
Tecos, last 3: DLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tigres de Alica, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tecos 1.5 xG, Leones Negros 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tecos 40%, draw 22%, Leones Negros 39%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Leones Negros to win @2.85 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tecos 1–1 Leones Negros. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tecos40%fair 2.50 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.35
Leones Negros39%fair 2.60 · @2.85
2.90Expected goals
1.47Tecos xG
1.44Leones Negros xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Tecos 1.5 – 1.4 Leones Negros expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tecos to win✗
40%
2.50
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.55
Draw no bet
Tecos (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Leones Negros +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Tecos to score first✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tecos / FT Tecos✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.79
–
Recent results
Tecos – last 3
DLD
13 Mar
vs Tigres de Alica
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ Tritons Vallarta
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs Guerreros
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Leones Negros – last 1
L
17 Feb
@ Durango
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tecos and Leones Negros.
What is the prediction for Tecos vs Leones Negros?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tecos vs Leones Negros?
On our numbers Tecos have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leones Negros 39%.
How many goals will there be in Tecos vs Leones Negros?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tecos vs Leones Negros?
Our predicted score is Tecos 1–1 Leones Negros, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Tecos vs Leones Negros?
Tecos vs Leones Negros (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Marzo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
