Value bet: Spartak Varna to win @ 3.75 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv Sofia to win ✗47% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.60
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 13 February the First League brings Spartak Varna against Lokomotiv Sofia at Stadion Spartak. Kick-off: 16:45 WAT. In the table, Spartak Varna are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 14 matches; Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Spartak Varna 1.3 xG, Lokomotiv Sofia 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Spartak Varna 29%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Sofia 47%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Spartak Varna to win @3.75 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spartak Varna 1–1 Lokomotiv Sofia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Spartak Varna29%fair 3.45 · @3.75
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Lokomotiv Sofia47%fair 2.14 · @1.91
2.71Expected goals
1.29Spartak Varna xG
1.41Lokomotiv Sofia xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Spartak Varna 1.3 – 1.4 Lokomotiv Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv Sofia to win✗
47%
2.14
1.91
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.83 ▲
Draw no bet
Lokomotiv Sofia (draw no bet)
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Spartak Varna +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Lokomotiv Sofia to score first✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv Sofia / FT Lokomotiv Sofia✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.60
–
Recent results
Spartak Varna
No recent results on record.
Lokomotiv Sofia
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia.
What is the prediction for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
On our numbers Spartak Varna have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lokomotiv Sofia 47%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our predicted score is Spartak Varna 1–1 Lokomotiv Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia (First League) kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
