Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
1
Value bet: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win @ 2.88 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv Plovdiv to win ✗37% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✗70% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.64
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lokomotiv Plovdiv welcome Cherno More Varna to Stadion Lokomotiv for a First League fixture on Sunday 15 February (11:00 WAT). In the table, Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 14 matches; Cherno More Varna are 9th (lower half) with 13. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.1 xG, Cherno More Varna 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv Plovdiv 37%, draw 30%, Cherno More Varna 33%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More Varna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv Plovdiv37%fair 2.67 · @2.88
Draw30%fair 3.37 · @2.88
Cherno More Varna33%fair 3.04 · @2.45
2.01Expected goals
1.12Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
0.89Cherno More Varna xG
49%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
0–013%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.1 – 0.9 Cherno More Varna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win✗
37%
2.67
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
70%
1.42
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.67
Draw no bet
Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Cherno More Varna +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score first
48%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv Plovdiv / FT Lokomotiv Plovdiv✗
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.64
–
Recent results
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
No recent results on record.
Cherno More Varna
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Cherno More Varna 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More Varna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna (First League) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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