Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.21 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.21Odds
Picks by market
ResultLokomotiv Plovdiv to win ✗57% · @1.47
Double chanceLokomotiv Plovdiv or draw ✓82% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.51
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.69
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Saturday 21 February: Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Spartak Varna in the First League, played at Stadion Lokomotiv. In the table, Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 14 matches; Spartak Varna are 7th (upper half) with 16.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.5 xG, Spartak Varna 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lokomotiv Plovdiv 57%, draw 25%, Spartak Varna 18%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.51.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.21). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak Varna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lokomotiv Plovdiv57%fair 1.75 · @1.47
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.90
Spartak Varna18%fair 5.53 · @6.25
2.30Expected goals
1.50Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
0.81Spartak Varna xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.5 – 0.8 Spartak Varna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win✗
57%
1.75
1.47
Double chance
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.51
Draw no bet
Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw no bet)
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Spartak Varna +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.21
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
First team to score
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score first
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv Plovdiv / FT Lokomotiv Plovdiv✗
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.69
–
Recent results
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Cherno More Varna
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Spartak Varna – last 1
D
13 Feb
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Spartak Varna.
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
On our numbers Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Spartak Varna 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak Varna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna (First League) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Lokomotiv.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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