Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Arda Kardzhali to win @ 3.45 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCherno More Varna to win ✗40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.73
Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Wednesday 4 March: Cherno More Varna v Arda Kardzhali in the First League, played at Ticha. In the table, Cherno More Varna are 9th, lower half, on 13 points after 14 matches; Arda Kardzhali are 6th (upper half) with 21.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cherno More Varna 1.2 xG, Arda Kardzhali 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cherno More Varna 40%, draw 28%, Arda Kardzhali 32%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Arda Kardzhali to win @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cherno More Varna 1–1 Arda Kardzhali. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cherno More Varna40%fair 2.47 · @2.10
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @2.95
Arda Kardzhali32%fair 3.15 · @3.45
2.23Expected goals
1.18Cherno More Varna xG
1.05Arda Kardzhali xG
52%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Cherno More Varna 1.2 – 1.0 Arda Kardzhali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cherno More Varna to win✗
40%
2.47
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.00
Draw no bet
Cherno More Varna (draw no bet)
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Arda Kardzhali +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Cherno More Varna to score first✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cherno More Varna / FT Cherno More Varna✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.73
–
Recent results
Cherno More Varna – last 2
DD
20 Feb
vs Botev Vratsa
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Arda Kardzhali – last 2
WD
27 Feb
vs Spartak Varna
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Beroe
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cherno More Varna and Arda Kardzhali.
What is the prediction for Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
On our numbers Cherno More Varna have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Arda Kardzhali 32%.
How many goals will there be in Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our predicted score is Cherno More Varna 1–1 Arda Kardzhali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali (First League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Ticha.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
