Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLudogorets to win ✓69% · @1.20
Double chanceLudogorets or draw ✓88% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.17
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Spartak Varna welcome Ludogorets to Stadion Spartak for a First League fixture on Thursday 19 March (17:00 WAT). In the table, Spartak Varna are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 14 matches; Ludogorets are 3rd (among the top four) with 30. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Spartak Varna, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to CSKA 1948, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Ludogorets, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Montana, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ludogorets, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Spartak Varna.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Spartak Varna 0.9 xG, Ludogorets 2.1 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Spartak Varna 12%, draw 19%, Ludogorets 69%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ludogorets to win (69%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spartak Varna 0–2 Ludogorets. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Spartak Varna12%fair 8.39 · @12.00
Draw19%fair 5.30 · @5.40
Ludogorets69%fair 1.45 · @1.20
3.00Expected goals
0.87Spartak Varna xG
2.13Ludogorets xG
57%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Spartak Varna 0.9 – 2.1 Ludogorets expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ludogorets to win✓
69%
1.45
1.20
Double chance
Ludogorets or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Ludogorets (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Ludogorets -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.25
First team to score
Ludogorets to score first✓
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Ludogorets ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ludogorets / FT Ludogorets✓
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
Spartak Varna – last 6
LLWLDD
14 Mar
vs CSKA 1948
1–2
L
6 Mar
@ Slavia Sofia
0–4
L
3 Mar
vs Montana
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arda Kardzhali
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ludogorets – last 6
WWDLLW
9 Mar
@ Montana
3–0
W
5 Mar
vs Levski Sofia
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Ferencvarosi TC
0–2
L
23 Feb
@ Botev Plovdiv
1–2
L
19 Feb
vs Ferencvarosi TC
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Varna and Ludogorets.
What is the prediction for Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Our pick is Ludogorets to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
On our numbers Spartak Varna have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ludogorets 69%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Our predicted score is Spartak Varna 0–2 Ludogorets, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets (First League) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
