Value bet: Prato to win @ 2.32 – our chance 49% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultPrato to win49% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.29
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · fair 1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–113% · fair 7.87
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Prato: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano welcome Prato to Stadio Comunale Carraia for a Serie D Girone E fixture on Sunday 29 March (14:00 WAT). In the table, Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano are 18th, in the drop zone, on 3 points after 11 matches; Prato are 1st (leading the league) with 25. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano, last 4: WLLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sansepolcro, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Prato, last 4: WDWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over San Donato Tavarnelle, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Prato, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0.9 xG, Prato 1.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 27%, draw 24%, Prato 49%.
Price worth noting: Prato to win @2.32 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (54%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–1 Prato. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano27%fair 3.76 · @2.70
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.20
Prato49%fair 2.04 · @2.32
2.56Expected goals
0.91Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano xG
1.65Prato xG
48%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0.9 – 1.7 Prato expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
Prato
Attack vs Serie D Girone E average
-27%
+29%
Goals conceded vs average
+39%
-34%
Our expected goals here
0.73
1.87
Our own ratings from every Serie D Girone E result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Prato to win
49%
2.04
2.32 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.29
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
52%
1.93
–
Draw no bet
Prato (draw no bet)
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.86
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Prato to score first
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Prato / FT Prato
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
13%
7.87
–
Recent results
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano – last 4
WLLD
25 Mar
vs Sansepolcro
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Cannara
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ Robur Siena
1–4
L
15 Feb
@ Terranuova Traiana
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Prato – last 4
WDWD
22 Mar
vs San Donato Tavarnelle
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Robur Siena
3–3
D
22 Feb
vs Terranuova Traiana
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sansepolcro
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano and Prato.
What is the prediction for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Prato?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Prato?
On our numbers Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Prato 49%.
How many goals will there be in Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Prato?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Prato?
Our predicted score is Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano 0–1 Prato, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Prato?
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Prato (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Carraia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
