Value bet: Virtus Francavilla to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAfragolese to win ✗37% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.53
Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Virtus Francavilla travel to face Afragolese on Thursday 2 April in the Serie D Girone H, with Stadio Luigi Moccia the venue – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT.
Current form
Afragolese, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Martina Franca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Virtus Francavilla, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Nardò, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Virtus Francavilla, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.3 for Afragolese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Afragolese 1.2 xG, Virtus Francavilla 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Afragolese 37%, draw 27%, Virtus Francavilla 36%.
Price worth noting: Virtus Francavilla to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (57%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Afragolese 1–1 Virtus Francavilla. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Afragolese37%fair 2.69 · @2.10
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.20
Virtus Francavilla36%fair 2.76 · @3.10
2.40Expected goals
1.15Afragolese xG
1.24Virtus Francavilla xG
47%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Afragolese 1.2 – 1.2 Virtus Francavilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Afragolese to win✗
37%
2.69
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
–
Draw no bet
Afragolese (draw no bet)
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Afragolese +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Virtus Francavilla to score first✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Virtus Francavilla / FT Virtus Francavilla✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.53
–
Recent results
Afragolese – last 6
LWDWLD
29 Mar
@ Martina Franca
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Fidelis Andria
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Ferrandina
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Real Acerrana
5–2
W
22 Feb
@ Barletta
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Nardò
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Virtus Francavilla – last 6
WWWWLW
29 Mar
vs Nardò
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Real Acerrana
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Nola 1925
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Heraclea
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Gravina
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Città di Fasano
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Afragolese and Virtus Francavilla.
What is the prediction for Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
On our numbers Afragolese have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Virtus Francavilla 36%.
How many goals will there be in Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
Our predicted score is Afragolese 1–1 Virtus Francavilla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla?
Afragolese vs Virtus Francavilla (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Moccia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Città di Fasano2
Ferrandina0