Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
Picks by market
ResultCovadonga to win ✗73% · @1.08
Double chanceCovadonga or draw ✓91% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.71
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗11% · fair 9.48
Covadonga vs Lenense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Sunday 15 February: Covadonga v Lenense in the Tercera División RFEF Group 2, played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Covadonga 2.1 xG, Lenense 0.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 42%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Covadonga 73%, draw 18%, Lenense 9%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (61%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Covadonga 2–0 Lenense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Covadonga73%fair 1.37 · @1.08
Draw18%fair 5.45 · @6.40
Lenense9%fair 11.25 · @23.00
2.71Expected goals
2.12Covadonga xG
0.59Lenense xG
42%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–015%
1–014%
3–011%
2–19%
1–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Covadonga 2.1 – 0.6 Lenense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Covadonga to win✗
73%
1.37
1.08
Double chance
Covadonga or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.01
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
–
Draw no bet
Covadonga (draw no bet)
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Covadonga -1 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.80 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Covadonga to score first
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Covadonga ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Covadonga / FT Covadonga✗
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
11%
9.48
–
Recent results
Covadonga
No recent results on record.
Lenense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Covadonga and Lenense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Covadonga vs Lenense?
On our numbers Covadonga have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Lenense 9%.
How many goals will there be in Covadonga vs Lenense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Covadonga vs Lenense?
Our predicted score is Covadonga 2–0 Lenense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Covadonga vs Lenense?
Covadonga vs Lenense (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tuilla0
Llanera3