Badajoz v Moralo Prediction & Expected Goals (22 Feb) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBadajoz to win ✗51% · @1.67

Double chanceBadajoz or draw ✗78% · @1.12

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.89

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.31

Badajoz vs Moralo: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

12:00 WAT, Sunday 22 February: Badajoz v Moralo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 14, played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Badajoz 1.4 xG, Moralo 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Badajoz 51%, draw 27%, Moralo 22%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (54%, odds 1.83). Most likely score in line with that pick: Badajoz 1–0 Moralo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Badajoz51%fair 1.96 · @1.67

Draw27%fair 3.74 · @3.40

Moralo22%fair 4.52 · @4.40

2.31Expected goals

1.38Badajoz xG

0.93Moralo xG

47%Both score

46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%

1–113%

0–010%

2–09%

0–19%

2–19%

From our goals model: Badajoz 1.4 – 0.9 Moralo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Badajoz to win ✗	51%	1.96	1.67
Double chance	Badajoz or draw ✗	78%	1.28	1.12
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	53%	1.89	–
Draw no bet	Badajoz (draw no bet) ✗	70%	1.43	–
Asian handicap	Moralo +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	70%	1.43	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	54%	1.84	1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	92%	1.09	–
First team to score	Badajoz to score first ✗	54%	1.86	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	46%	2.18	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Badajoz / FT Badajoz ✗	28%	3.61	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	14%	7.31	–

Tercera División RFEF Group 14 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	10	7	2	1	+12	23
2	Llerenense	10	6	4	0	+8	22
3	Moralo	10	6	3	1	+6	21
4	Castuera	10	6	2	2	+12	20
5	Villanovense	10	5	3	2	+9	18
6	Puebla Calzada	10	5	2	3	+5	17
7	CD Zafra	10	3	4	3	+4	13
8	Cabeza Buey	10	3	4	3	+1	13
9	Quintana	10	3	4	3	+1	13
10	Villafranca	10	4	1	5	0	13
11	Jaraíz	10	3	3	4	+2	12
12	Santa Amalia	10	2	6	2	+2	12
13	Gévora	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Jerez	10	3	3	4	-4	12
15	Plasencia	10	1	5	4	-7	8
16	Montijo	10	2	2	6	-8	8
17	Atlético Pueblonuevo	10	0	4	6	-15	4
18	Guadiana	10	0	1	9	-26	1

More Tercera División RFEF Group 14 predictions

League hub

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Badajoz vs Moralo?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.

Who will win Badajoz vs Moralo?

On our numbers Badajoz have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Moralo 22%.

How many goals will there be in Badajoz vs Moralo?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Badajoz vs Moralo?

Our predicted score is Badajoz 1–0 Moralo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Badajoz vs Moralo?

Badajoz vs Moralo (Tercera División RFEF Group 14) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Badajoz v Moralo: numbers & prediction

Badajoz

Moralo

Under 2.5 goals