Value bet: Şahdağ to win @ 3.80 – our chance 43% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +62%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultŞahdağ to win ✓43% · @3.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Şahdağ welcome Mingəçevir for a Birinci Dasta fixture on Tuesday 5 May (13:00 WAT). In the table, Şahdağ are 2nd, among the top four, on 15 points after 6 matches; Mingəçevir are 9th (in the drop zone) with 4.
Current form
Şahdağ, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over MOIK, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Mingəçevir, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 7–1 win over Zaqatala, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.2 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Şahdağ 2.0 xG, Mingəçevir 1.1 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Şahdağ 43%, draw 19%, Mingəçevir 39%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Şahdağ to win @3.80 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Şahdağ 2–1 Mingəçevir. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Şahdağ43%fair 2.35 · @3.80
Draw19%fair 5.30 · @3.50
Mingəçevir39%fair 2.60 · @1.75
3.17Expected goals
2.03Şahdağ xG
1.13Mingəçevir xG
54%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Şahdağ 2.0 – 1.1 Mingəçevir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şahdağ to win✓
43%
2.35
3.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.85
Draw no bet
Şahdağ (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Mingəçevir +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
First team to score
Şahdağ to score first✓
62%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Şahdağ ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şahdağ / FT Şahdağ✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.13
–
Recent results
Şahdağ – last 6
WWDWWL
29 Apr
@ MOIK
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Zaqatala
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Cəbrayıl
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Difai Ağsu
3–0
W
3 Apr
vs Şimal
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Safa Baku
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mingəçevir – last 6
WLWWWD
29 Apr
vs Zaqatala
7–1
W
22 Apr
@ Cəbrayıl
1–2
L
16 Apr
vs Difai Ağsu
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Şimal
3–0
W
3 Apr
vs Safa Baku
5–2
W
18 Mar
@ Baku Sportinq
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şahdağ and Mingəçevir.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir?
On our numbers Şahdağ have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Mingəçevir 39%.
How many goals will there be in Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir?
Our predicted score is Şahdağ 2–1 Mingəçevir, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir?
Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
