Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultMelbourne Victory to win ✗57% · @1.50
Double chanceMelbourne Victory or draw ✗81% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.32
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Wellington Phoenix travel to face Melbourne Victory on Sunday 5 April in the A League, with AAMI Park the venue – the ball rolls at 06:00 WAT. In the table, Melbourne Victory are 9th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Wellington Phoenix are 1st (leading the league) with 10.
Current form
Melbourne Victory, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Central Coast Mariners, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Wellington Phoenix, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Brisbane Roar, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Melbourne Victory, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Wellington Phoenix.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Melbourne Victory 1.7 xG, Wellington Phoenix 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Melbourne Victory 57%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix 19%.
Lower-risk option: Melbourne Victory or draw (81%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.57, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Melbourne Victory 1–1 Wellington Phoenix. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Melbourne Victory57%fair 1.77 · @1.50
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @4.45
Wellington Phoenix19%fair 5.34 · @5.60
2.76Expected goals
1.70Melbourne Victory xG
1.06Wellington Phoenix xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–06%
From our goals model: Melbourne Victory 1.7 – 1.1 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win✗
57%
1.77
1.50
Double chance
Melbourne Victory or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.57
Draw no bet
Melbourne Victory (draw no bet)✗
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Wellington Phoenix +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.65 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
First team to score
Melbourne Victory to score first✗
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory✗
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
Melbourne Victory – last 6
WWDDWD
21 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
4–1
W
15 Mar
vs Macarthur
4–1
W
7 Mar
@ Sydney
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Adelaide United
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Melbourne City
3–1
W
14 Feb
vs Brisbane Roar
1–1
D
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
WWDLLD
21 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Perth Glory
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Adelaide United
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Sydney
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Auckland
0–5
L
13 Feb
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix.
What is the prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Melbourne Victory have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Wellington Phoenix 19%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our predicted score is Melbourne Victory 1–1 Wellington Phoenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
