Value bet: Melbourne Victory to win @ 1.90 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMelbourne Victory to win ✗61% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.44
Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Newcastle Jets travel to face Melbourne Victory on Friday 17 April in the A League, with AAMI Park the venue – the ball rolls at 10:35 WAT. In the table, Melbourne Victory are 9th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Newcastle Jets are 10th (in the drop zone) with 2. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Melbourne Victory, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Auckland, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Newcastle Jets, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Adelaide United, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Melbourne Victory 2.4 xG, Newcastle Jets 1.1 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 66% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Melbourne Victory 61%, draw 18%, Newcastle Jets 21%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.30.
Price worth noting: Melbourne Victory to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Melbourne Victory 2–1 Newcastle Jets. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Melbourne Victory61%fair 1.64 · @1.90
Draw18%fair 5.61 · @4.10
Newcastle Jets21%fair 4.70 · @3.30
3.51Expected goals
2.36Melbourne Victory xG
1.15Newcastle Jets xG
66%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Melbourne Victory 2.4 – 1.1 Newcastle Jets expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win✗
61%
1.64
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
82%
1.22
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.51
1.30
Draw no bet
Melbourne Victory (draw no bet)
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Melbourne Victory -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
2.00
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.44
First team to score
Melbourne Victory to score first
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Melbourne Victory ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.44
–
Recent results
Melbourne Victory – last 6
DLWWDD
11 Apr
@ Auckland
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
4–1
W
15 Mar
vs Macarthur
4–1
W
7 Mar
@ Sydney
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Adelaide United
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Newcastle Jets – last 6
DLWLWD
11 Apr
vs Adelaide United
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Macarthur
2–3
L
22 Mar
@ Sydney
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Auckland
1–2
L
7 Mar
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Central Coast Mariners
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne Victory and Newcastle Jets.
What is the prediction for Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
On our numbers Melbourne Victory have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Newcastle Jets 21%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
Our predicted score is Melbourne Victory 2–1 Newcastle Jets, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets?
Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets (A League) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 10:35 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
