Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Wellington Phoenix to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMacarthur to win ✓39% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.27
Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 24 April the A League brings Macarthur against Wellington Phoenix at Campbelltown Stadium. Kick-off: 10:35 WAT. In the table, Macarthur are 7th, lower half, on 5 points after 4 matches; Wellington Phoenix are 1st (leading the league) with 10.
Current form
Macarthur, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Adelaide United, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Wellington Phoenix, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Western Sydney Wanderers, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Wellington Phoenix, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Macarthur.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Macarthur 1.3 xG, Wellington Phoenix 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Macarthur 39%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix 36%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.45.
Price worth noting: Wellington Phoenix to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Macarthur 1–1 Wellington Phoenix. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Macarthur39%fair 2.53 · @1.97
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @4.00
Wellington Phoenix36%fair 2.81 · @3.20
2.74Expected goals
1.35Macarthur xG
1.40Wellington Phoenix xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Macarthur 1.3 – 1.4 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Macarthur to win✓
39%
2.53
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.45
Draw no bet
Macarthur (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Macarthur +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.25
First team to score
Wellington Phoenix to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Wellington Phoenix / FT Wellington Phoenix✗
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.27
–
Recent results
Macarthur – last 6
LLWWLL
19 Apr
@ Adelaide United
1–3
L
12 Apr
@ Perth Glory
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Newcastle Jets
3–2
W
21 Mar
@ Auckland
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Melbourne Victory
1–4
L
4 Mar
vs Central Coast Mariners
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
WLWWWD
18 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Melbourne City
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Melbourne Victory
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Perth Glory
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Adelaide United
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Macarthur and Wellington Phoenix.
What is the prediction for Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Macarthur have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Wellington Phoenix 36%.
How many goals will there be in Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our predicted score is Macarthur 1–1 Wellington Phoenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix?
Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 10:35 (West Africa Time) at Campbelltown Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
