Melbourne City 48%Draw 23%Adelaide United 29%Expected goals 1.78 – 1.23
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultMelbourne City to win ✗48% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.41
Melbourne City vs Adelaide United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
08:30 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Melbourne City v Adelaide United in the A League, played at AAMI Park. In the table, Melbourne City are 4th, among the top four, on 7 points after 4 matches; Adelaide United are 12th (in the drop zone) with 1.
Current form
Melbourne City, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Brisbane Roar, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Adelaide United, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Macarthur, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Melbourne City, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for Adelaide United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Melbourne City 1.8 xG, Adelaide United 1.2 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Melbourne City 48%, draw 23%, Adelaide United 29%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Melbourne City 1–1 Adelaide United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Melbourne City48%fair 2.06 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.75
Adelaide United29%fair 3.46 · @3.30
3.01Expected goals
1.78Melbourne City xG
1.23Adelaide United xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Melbourne City 1.8 – 1.2 Adelaide United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne City to win✗
48%
2.06
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Draw no bet
Melbourne City (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.60
–
Asian handicap
Adelaide United +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
First team to score
Melbourne City to score first✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne City / FT Melbourne City✗
31%
3.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Melbourne City – last 6
WWWWDW
18 Apr
@ Brisbane Roar
3–2
W
12 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
2–0
W
7 Apr
vs Central Coast Mariners
2–1
W
4 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
3–0
W
22 Mar
@ Perth Glory
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Sydney
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Adelaide United – last 6
WDDWDD
19 Apr
vs Macarthur
3–1
W
11 Apr
@ Newcastle Jets
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Auckland
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
4–2
W
14 Mar
@ Central Coast Mariners
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Wellington Phoenix
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Melbourne City and Adelaide United.
What is the prediction for Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
On our numbers Melbourne City have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Adelaide United 29%.
How many goals will there be in Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
Our predicted score is Melbourne City 1–1 Adelaide United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?
Melbourne City vs Adelaide United (A League) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 08:30 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
