Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓18% · fair 5.53
Police vs Tusker: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:15 WAT, Friday 3 April: Police v Tusker in the FKF Premier League, played at Police Sacco Stadium.
Current form
Police, last 5: LWWDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Posta Rangers FC, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tusker, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to AFC Leopards, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Police 1.0 xG, Tusker 0.7 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 76% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Police 42%, draw 27%, Tusker 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (91%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Police 0–0 Tusker. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Police42%fair 2.39
Draw27%fair 3.65
Tusker31%fair 3.25
1.67Expected goals
0.97Police xG
0.71Tusker xG
40%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–019%
1–018%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Police 1.0 – 0.7 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Police
Tusker
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-13%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
-33%
-4%
Our expected goals here
0.98
0.64
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Police to win✓
42%
2.39
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.38
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
–
Draw no bet
Police (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Tusker +1 (Asian handicap)
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Police to score first✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
18%
5.53
–
Recent results
Police – last 5
LWWDD
13 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Bandari
2–0
W
26 Feb
@ Sofapaka
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Tusker – last 5
LWWWL
22 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Homeboyz
2–0
W
2 Mar
@ Kariobangi Sharks
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Shabana
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Police and Tusker.
On our numbers Police have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Tusker 31%.
How many goals will there be in Police vs Tusker?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Police vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is Police 0–0 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Police vs Tusker?
Police vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 14:15 (West Africa Time) at Police Sacco Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
