Nairobi United 49%Draw 23%Tusker 28%Expected goals 1.31 – 0.90
82%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultNairobi United to win ✓49% · fair 2.02
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 6.95
Nairobi United vs Tusker: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nairobi United welcome Tusker to Nyayo National Stadium for a FKF Premier League fixture on Wednesday 6 May (14:00 WAT). In the table, Nairobi United are 15th, lower half, on 5 points after 6 matches; Tusker are 11th (lower half) with 6. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nairobi United, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to KCB, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Tusker, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ulinzi Stars, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nairobi United 1.3 xG, Tusker 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 43%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nairobi United 49%, draw 23%, Tusker 28%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (82%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nairobi United 1–0 Tusker. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nairobi United49%fair 2.02
Draw23%fair 4.35
Tusker28%fair 3.62
2.21Expected goals
1.31Nairobi United xG
0.90Tusker xG
43%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Nairobi United 1.3 – 0.9 Tusker expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Nairobi United
Tusker
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+18%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.33
0.96
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nairobi United to win✓
49%
2.02
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
–
Draw no bet
Nairobi United (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Tusker +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Nairobi United to score first✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nairobi United / FT Nairobi United✓
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
6.95
–
Recent results
Nairobi United – last 6
LWDWDD
3 May
vs KCB
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Murang'a SEAL
4–2
W
8 Apr
vs Homeboyz
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Shabana
3–0
W
1 Apr
vs Mara Sugar
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ APS Bomet
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tusker – last 6
WLWLLW
3 May
@ Ulinzi Stars
2–1
W
24 Apr
vs Mara Sugar
0–1
L
14 Apr
vs GOR Mahia
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Police
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Homeboyz
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nairobi United and Tusker.
What is the prediction for Nairobi United vs Tusker?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Tusker?
On our numbers Nairobi United have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tusker 28%.
How many goals will there be in Nairobi United vs Tusker?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nairobi United vs Tusker?
Our predicted score is Nairobi United 1–0 Tusker, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Nairobi United vs Tusker?
Nairobi United vs Tusker (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Nyayo National Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
