Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.50
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 3 May the FKF Premier League brings Homeboyz against GOR Mahia at Bukhungu Stadium. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Homeboyz are 17th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 5 matches; GOR Mahia are 1st (leading the league) with 13.
Current form
Homeboyz, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with KCB, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
GOR Mahia, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over AFC Leopards, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Homeboyz 1.0 xG, GOR Mahia 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Homeboyz 32%, draw 25%, GOR Mahia 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (82%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Homeboyz 1–1 GOR Mahia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Homeboyz32%fair 3.09
Draw25%fair 4.05
GOR Mahia43%fair 2.33
2.18Expected goals
1.00Homeboyz xG
1.18GOR Mahia xG
43%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Homeboyz 1.0 – 1.2 GOR Mahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Homeboyz
GOR Mahia
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+2%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
-20%
Our expected goals here
0.96
1.10
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GOR Mahia to win✓
43%
2.33
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
GOR Mahia (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Homeboyz +1 (Asian handicap)
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
GOR Mahia to score first✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT GOR Mahia / FT GOR Mahia✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.50
–
Recent results
Homeboyz – last 6
DDWWDL
26 Apr
@ KCB
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Nairobi United
2–2
D
4 Apr
vs Mathare United
3–0
W
28 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs Bandari
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Tusker
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
GOR Mahia – last 6
WDLDWD
26 Apr
@ AFC Leopards
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Bandari
0–0
D
14 Apr
@ Tusker
0–1
L
4 Apr
vs Kariobangi Sharks
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Ulinzi Stars
3–1
W
5 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Homeboyz and GOR Mahia.
On our numbers Homeboyz have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and GOR Mahia 43%.
How many goals will there be in Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
Our predicted score is Homeboyz 1–1 GOR Mahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia?
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Bukhungu Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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