Sofapaka 38%Draw 25%Mathare United 38%Expected goals 0.96 – 1.00
86%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultSofapaka to win ✗38% · fair 2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · fair 1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.69
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.40
Sofapaka vs Mathare United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sofapaka welcome Mathare United for a FKF Premier League fixture on Saturday 2 May (13:00 WAT).
Current form
Sofapaka, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to APS Bomet, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Mathare United, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Police, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sofapaka 1.0 xG, Mathare United 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sofapaka 38%, draw 25%, Mathare United 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (86%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sofapaka 0–1 Mathare United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sofapaka38%fair 2.66
Draw25%fair 4.04
Mathare United38%fair 2.66
1.96Expected goals
0.96Sofapaka xG
1.00Mathare United xG
41%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–014%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sofapaka 1.0 – 1.0 Mathare United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sofapaka
Mathare United
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-24%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
+49%
+7%
Our expected goals here
0.96
1.08
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sofapaka to win✗
38%
2.66
–
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
–
Draw no bet
Sofapaka (draw no bet)
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Sofapaka +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Mathare United to score first
44%
2.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.40
–
Recent results
Sofapaka – last 6
LDLDLL
26 Apr
@ APS Bomet
0–1
L
3 Apr
vs Bandari
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Ulinzi Stars
0–2
L
21 Mar
@ Bidco United
0–0
D
14 Mar
vs Nairobi United
0–1
L
2 Mar
@ Mara Sugar
1–3
L
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mathare United – last 5
DLDLD
14 Apr
vs Police
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ Homeboyz
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ Murang'a SEAL
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Shabana
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
0.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sofapaka and Mathare United.
What is the prediction for Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 86% chance.
Who will win Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
On our numbers Sofapaka have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mathare United 38%.
How many goals will there be in Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
Our predicted score is Sofapaka 0–1 Mathare United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Sofapaka vs Mathare United?
Sofapaka vs Mathare United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
