Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.47
Tusker vs Mara Sugar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Friday 24 April: Tusker v Mara Sugar in the FKF Premier League. In the table, Tusker are 11th, lower half, on 6 points after 4 matches; Mara Sugar are 6th (upper half) with 9. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Tusker, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over GOR Mahia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Mara Sugar, last 5: WWDLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Kariobangi Sharks, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Tusker, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Mara Sugar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tusker 1.1 xG, Mara Sugar 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tusker 42%, draw 29%, Mara Sugar 28%.
Lower-risk option: Tusker or draw (72%) at 1.25.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Tusker or draw (72%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tusker 1–0 Mara Sugar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tusker42%fair 2.36 · @2.20
Draw29%fair 3.40 · @2.75
Mara Sugar28%fair 3.54 · @3.30
2.00Expected goals
1.14Tusker xG
0.86Mara Sugar xG
41%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Tusker 1.1 – 0.9 Mara Sugar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tusker
Mara Sugar
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+9%
+6%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
-5%
Our expected goals here
1.21
0.90
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tusker to win✗
42%
2.36
2.20
Double chance
Tusker or draw✗
72%
1.39
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
–
Draw no bet
Tusker (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Mara Sugar +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Tusker to score first✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tusker / FT Tusker✗
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.47
–
Recent results
Tusker – last 6
WLLWWW
14 Apr
vs GOR Mahia
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Police
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ AFC Leopards
0–1
L
15 Mar
vs Homeboyz
2–0
W
2 Mar
@ Kariobangi Sharks
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mara Sugar – last 6
WWDLDD
18 Apr
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs Posta Rangers FC
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Nairobi United
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ KCB
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
14 Mar
@ Bandari
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tusker and Mara Sugar.
Our pick is Tusker or draw with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
On our numbers Tusker have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Mara Sugar 28%.
How many goals will there be in Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
Our predicted score is Tusker 1–0 Mara Sugar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Tusker vs Mara Sugar?
Tusker vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bidco United1