Mathare United 29%Draw 30%APS Bomet 42%Expected goals 0.70 – 0.98
91%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.10 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultAPS Bomet to win ✓42% · fair 2.39
Double chanceAPS Bomet or draw ✓71% · fair 1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.49
Mathare United vs APS Bomet: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 10 May the FKF Premier League brings Mathare United against APS Bomet. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT. In the table, Mathare United are 16th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 6 matches; APS Bomet are 13th (lower half) with 6. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mathare United, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sofapaka, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
APS Bomet, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over KCB, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 6 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours APS Bomet, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Mathare United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mathare United 0.7 xG, APS Bomet 1.0 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 76% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mathare United 29%, draw 30%, APS Bomet 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (91%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mathare United 0–0 APS Bomet. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mathare United29%fair 3.49
Draw30%fair 3.39
APS Bomet42%fair 2.39
1.68Expected goals
0.70Mathare United xG
0.98APS Bomet xG
38%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–019%
0–118%
1–013%
1–113%
0–29%
1–26%
From our goals model: Mathare United 0.7 – 1.0 APS Bomet expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mathare United
APS Bomet
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-18%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-41%
Our expected goals here
0.57
0.85
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
APS Bomet to win✓
42%
2.39
–
Double chance
APS Bomet or draw✓
71%
1.40
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
–
Draw no bet
APS Bomet (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Mathare United +1 (Asian handicap)✗
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
APS Bomet to score first✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.49
–
Recent results
Mathare United – last 6
DDLDLD
2 May
@ Sofapaka
2–2
D
14 Apr
vs Police
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ Homeboyz
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ Murang'a SEAL
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Shabana
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
APS Bomet – last 6
WWWWDD
6 May
vs KCB
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Sofapaka
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Posta Rangers FC
3–0
W
4 Apr
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Nairobi United
0–0
D
21 Mar
@ Mara Sugar
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mathare United and APS Bomet.
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 91% chance.
Who will win Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 30% and APS Bomet 42%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Our predicted score is Mathare United 0–0 APS Bomet, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Mathare United vs APS Bomet (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
