GOR Mahia 40%Draw 28%Police 32%Expected goals 0.95 – 0.73
91%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.10 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultGOR Mahia to win ✗40% · fair 2.53
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · fair 1.39
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗63% · fair 1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.65
GOR Mahia vs Police: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 10 May: GOR Mahia v Police in the FKF Premier League.
Current form
GOR Mahia, last 5: WWDLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Homeboyz, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Police, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Murang'a SEAL, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give GOR Mahia 0.9 xG, Police 0.7 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 76% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – GOR Mahia 40%, draw 28%, Police 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (91%). Most likely score in line with that pick: GOR Mahia 0–0 Police. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
GOR Mahia40%fair 2.53
Draw28%fair 3.56
Police32%fair 3.09
1.68Expected goals
0.95GOR Mahia xG
0.73Police xG
37%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–019%
1–018%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: GOR Mahia 0.9 – 0.7 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
GOR Mahia
Police
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+20%
-13%
Goals conceded vs average
-20%
-33%
Our expected goals here
0.94
0.61
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GOR Mahia to win✗
40%
2.53
–
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
63%
1.60
–
Draw no bet
GOR Mahia (draw no bet)
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Police +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
GOR Mahia to score first✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.65
–
Recent results
GOR Mahia – last 6
WWDLDW
3 May
@ Homeboyz
1–0
W
26 Apr
@ AFC Leopards
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Bandari
0–0
D
14 Apr
@ Tusker
0–1
L
4 Apr
vs Kariobangi Sharks
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Ulinzi Stars
3–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Police – last 6
WWDWLW
6 May
vs Murang'a SEAL
2–1
W
2 May
@ Shabana
1–0
W
14 Apr
@ Mathare United
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs Tusker
1–0
W
13 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Bandari
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between GOR Mahia and Police.
On our numbers GOR Mahia have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Police 32%.
How many goals will there be in GOR Mahia vs Police?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for GOR Mahia vs Police?
Our predicted score is GOR Mahia 0–0 Police, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is GOR Mahia vs Police?
GOR Mahia vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
