Ulinzi Stars 42%Draw 28%Mathare United 29%Expected goals 1.16 – 0.84
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultUlinzi Stars to win ✓42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.74
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.35
Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ulinzi Stars welcome Mathare United for a FKF Premier League fixture on Saturday 23 May (13:00 WAT). In the table, Ulinzi Stars are 14th, lower half, on 6 points after 6 matches; Mathare United are 16th (in the drop zone) with 5. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ulinzi Stars, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to AFC Leopards, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Mathare United, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to APS Bomet, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Ulinzi Stars, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.5 for Mathare United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ulinzi Stars 1.2 xG, Mathare United 0.8 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ulinzi Stars 42%, draw 28%, Mathare United 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ulinzi Stars 1–0 Mathare United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ulinzi Stars42%fair 2.38 · @2.20
Draw28%fair 3.51 · @3.10
Mathare United29%fair 3.40 · @3.00
2.00Expected goals
1.16Ulinzi Stars xG
0.84Mathare United xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
0–014%
1–113%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Ulinzi Stars 1.2 – 0.8 Mathare United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ulinzi Stars
Mathare United
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-11%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.13
0.71
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ulinzi Stars to win✓
42%
2.38
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.40
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
–
Draw no bet
Ulinzi Stars (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Mathare United +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Ulinzi Stars to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ulinzi Stars / FT Ulinzi Stars✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.35
–
Recent results
Ulinzi Stars – last 6
LDLLWW
13 May
vs AFC Leopards
0–2
L
9 May
@ Shabana
0–0
D
3 May
vs Tusker
1–2
L
4 Apr
vs APS Bomet
0–1
L
29 Mar
vs Sofapaka
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Nairobi United
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mathare United – last 6
LDDLDL
10 May
vs APS Bomet
0–2
L
2 May
@ Sofapaka
2–2
D
14 Apr
vs Police
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ Homeboyz
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ Murang'a SEAL
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Shabana
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ulinzi Stars and Mathare United.
What is the prediction for Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
On our numbers Ulinzi Stars have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Mathare United 29%.
How many goals will there be in Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
Our predicted score is Ulinzi Stars 1–0 Mathare United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United?
Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
