AD Carmelita 54%Draw 26%Aserri FC 20%Expected goals 1.58 – 0.94
54%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.84 · bookmaker 1.65
4/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultAD Carmelita to win54% · @1.80
Double chanceAD Carmelita or draw80% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · fair 1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.81
AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Sunday 15 February: AD Carmelita v Aserri FC in the Liga De Ascenso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AD Carmelita 1.6 xG, Aserri FC 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AD Carmelita 54%, draw 26%, Aserri FC 20%.
Lower-risk option: AD Carmelita or draw (80%) at 1.15.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (54%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: AD Carmelita 1–0 Aserri FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AD Carmelita54%fair 1.85 · @1.80
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.20
Aserri FC20%fair 5.01 · @4.00
2.51Expected goals
1.58AD Carmelita xG
0.94Aserri FC xG
48%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%
From our goals model: AD Carmelita 1.6 – 0.9 Aserri FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AD Carmelita to win
54%
1.85
1.80
Double chance
AD Carmelita or draw
80%
1.25
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
52%
1.91
–
Draw no bet
AD Carmelita (draw no bet)
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Aserri FC +1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
AD Carmelita to score first
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AD Carmelita / FT AD Carmelita
32%
3.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.81
–
Recent results
AD Carmelita
No recent results on record.
Aserri FC – last 1
D
13 Feb
vs Santa Ana
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Carmelita and Aserri FC.
What is the prediction for AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
On our numbers AD Carmelita have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Aserri FC 20%.
How many goals will there be in AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
Our predicted score is AD Carmelita 1–0 Aserri FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC?
AD Carmelita vs Aserri FC (Liga De Ascenso) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Deportivo Upala