Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 54% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMexico to win ✓55% · @1.43
Double chanceMexico or draw ✓80% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.34
Mexico vs South Africa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Thursday 11 June: Mexico v South Africa in the World Cup, played at Estadio Azteca.
Current form
Mexico, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Serbia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 6. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
South Africa, last 3: DLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Nicaragua, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Mexico, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for South Africa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mexico 1.4 xG, South Africa 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mexico 55%, draw 25%, South Africa 20%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mexico 1–0 South Africa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mexico55%fair 1.82 · @1.43
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @4.30
South Africa20%fair 4.95 · @8.00
2.37Expected goals
1.38Mexico xG
0.98South Africa xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–09%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Mexico 1.4 – 1.0 South Africa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mexico to win✓
55%
1.82
1.43
Double chance
Mexico or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Mexico (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
South Africa +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.08
First team to score
Mexico to score first✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mexico / FT Mexico✓
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.34
–
Recent results
Mexico – last 6
WWWDDW
5 Jun
vs Serbia
5–1
W
31 May
vs Australia
1–0
W
23 May
vs Ghana
2–0
W
1 Apr
vs Belgium
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Portugal
0–0
D
26 Feb
vs Iceland
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
South Africa – last 3
DLD
29 May
vs Nicaragua
0–0
D
31 Mar
vs Panama
1–2
L
27 Mar
vs Panama
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and South Africa.
What is the prediction for Mexico vs South Africa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mexico vs South Africa?
On our numbers Mexico have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and South Africa 20%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs South Africa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs South Africa?
Our predicted score is Mexico 1–0 South Africa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mexico vs South Africa?
Mexico vs South Africa (World Cup) kicks off on Thursday 11 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
