Philadelphia Union 57%Draw 23%San Jose Earthquakes 19%Expected goals 1.94 – 1.00
81%
Betarazi pick
Philadelphia Union or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Philadelphia Union to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPhiladelphia Union to win ✗57% · @1.90
Double chancePhiladelphia Union or draw ✗81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Philadelphia Union welcome San Jose Earthquakes to Subaru Park for a Major League Soccer fixture on Sunday 8 March (01:30 WAT). In the table, Philadelphia Union are 6th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; San Jose Earthquakes are 4th (among the top four) with 52. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Philadelphia Union, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 7–0 win over Defence Force, at home. Scoring is no problem – 4.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Philadelphia Union 1.9 xG, San Jose Earthquakes 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Philadelphia Union 57%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 19%.
Lower-risk option: Philadelphia Union or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Philadelphia Union to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Philadelphia Union or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Philadelphia Union 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Philadelphia Union57%fair 1.74 · @1.90
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.65
San Jose Earthquakes19%fair 5.15 · @3.70
2.94Expected goals
1.94Philadelphia Union xG
1.00San Jose Earthquakes xG
60%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–010%
1–110%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: Philadelphia Union 1.9 – 1.0 San Jose Earthquakes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Philadelphia Union to win✗
57%
1.74
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw✗
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.57
Draw no bet
Philadelphia Union (draw no bet)✗
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
San Jose Earthquakes +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
First team to score
Philadelphia Union to score first✗
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Philadelphia Union ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Philadelphia Union / FT Philadelphia Union✗
38%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
Philadelphia Union – last 3
WLW
27 Feb
vs Defence Force
7–0
W
22 Feb
@ DC United
0–1
L
19 Feb
@ Defence Force
5–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
San Jose Earthquakes – last 2
WW
1 Mar
vs Atlanta United FC
2–0
W
22 Feb
vs Sporting Kansas City
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Philadelphia Union and San Jose Earthquakes.
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our pick is Philadelphia Union or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
On our numbers Philadelphia Union have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and San Jose Earthquakes 19%.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our predicted score is Philadelphia Union 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Subaru Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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