Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gornik Zabrze travel to face Lech Poznan on Wednesday 4 March in the Cup, with Stadion Poznan the venue – the ball rolls at 20:30 WAT.
Current form
Lech Poznan, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Raków Częstochowa, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.4 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lech Poznan 1.7 xG, Gornik Zabrze 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lech Poznan 54%, draw 24%, Gornik Zabrze 21%.
Lower-risk option: Lech Poznan or draw (79%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lech Poznan 1–1 Gornik Zabrze. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lech Poznan54%fair 1.84 · @1.71
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.70
Gornik Zabrze21%fair 4.67 · @4.30
2.84Expected goals
1.74Lech Poznan xG
1.10Gornik Zabrze xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 1.7 – 1.1 Gornik Zabrze expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lech Poznan to win✗
54%
1.84
1.71
Double chance
Lech Poznan or draw✗
79%
1.27
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.70
Draw no bet
Lech Poznan (draw no bet)✗
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Gornik Zabrze +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Lech Poznan to score first✗
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lech Poznan / FT Lech Poznan✗
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.27
–
Recent results
Lech Poznan – last 5
WWWWW
1 Mar
vs Raków Częstochowa
4–3
W
26 Feb
vs KuPS
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Korona Kielce
2–1
W
19 Feb
@ KuPS
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Piast Gliwice
3–0
W
2.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Gornik Zabrze – last 1
D
16 Feb
@ Nieciecza
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lech Poznan and Gornik Zabrze.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gornik Zabrze 21%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 1–1 Gornik Zabrze, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze?
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Poznan.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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