Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 6 March the Challenge League brings Étoile Carouge against FC Aarau at Stade de la Fontenette. Kick-off: 20:15 WAT. In the table, Étoile Carouge are 7th, lower half, on 14 points after 13 matches; FC Aarau are 6th (lower half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
FC Aarau, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 5–3 win over Rapperswil, at home. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Étoile Carouge 1.2 xG, FC Aarau 1.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Étoile Carouge 25%, draw 26%, FC Aarau 49%.
Lower-risk option: FC Aarau or draw (75%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FC Aarau or draw (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Étoile Carouge 1–1 FC Aarau. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Étoile Carouge25%fair 3.99 · @3.70
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.50
FC Aarau49%fair 2.03 · @1.80
2.84Expected goals
1.24Étoile Carouge xG
1.60FC Aarau xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
0–27%
1–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Étoile Carouge 1.2 – 1.6 FC Aarau expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Aarau to win✓
49%
2.03
1.80
Double chance
FC Aarau or draw✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.55
Draw no bet
FC Aarau (draw no bet)✓
66%
1.51
–
Asian handicap
Étoile Carouge +1 (Asian handicap)✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
FC Aarau to score first✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Aarau / FT FC Aarau✓
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.78
–
Recent results
Étoile Carouge – last 2
DL
20 Feb
vs Yverdon Sport
2–2
D
13 Feb
vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
FC Aarau – last 3
WDL
27 Feb
vs Rapperswil
5–3
W
20 Feb
@ Stade Nyonnais
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2–4
L
2.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Étoile Carouge and FC Aarau.
What is the prediction for Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
Our pick is FC Aarau or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
On our numbers Étoile Carouge have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 26% and FC Aarau 49%.
How many goals will there be in Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
Our predicted score is Étoile Carouge 1–1 FC Aarau, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau?
Étoile Carouge vs FC Aarau (Challenge League) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Fontenette.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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