Value bet: Lexington to win @ 2.95 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLexington to win ✗38% · @2.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.09
Lexington vs Louisville City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Saturday 7 March: Lexington v Louisville City in the USL Championship, played at Toyota Stadium. In the table, Lexington are 4th, among the top four, on 48 points after 30 matches; Louisville City are 4th (among the top four) with 47. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lexington 1.7 xG, Louisville City 1.4 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington 38%, draw 24%, Louisville City 38%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Lexington to win @2.95 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington 1–1 Louisville City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lexington38%fair 2.62 · @2.95
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.20
Louisville City38%fair 2.64 · @2.20
3.10Expected goals
1.68Lexington xG
1.42Louisville City xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.7 – 1.4 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lexington
Louisville City
Attack vs USL Championship average
+45%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
-1%
Our expected goals here
2.15
1.42
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✗
38%
2.62
2.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Lexington (draw no bet)✗
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Louisville City +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
First team to score
Lexington to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✗
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.09
–
Recent results
Lexington
No recent results on record.
Louisville City – last 1
W
22 Feb
@ FC Cincinnati
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and Louisville City.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Lexington vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Lexington have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Louisville City 38%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Louisville City?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Lexington 1–1 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Louisville City?
Lexington vs Louisville City (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
