Newells Old Boys 39%Draw 31%San Lorenzo 30%Expected goals 1.14 – 0.86
70%
Betarazi pick
Newells Old Boys or draw
Strong pick · fair odds 1.42 · bookmaker 1.38
7/10Rating
1.38Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultNewells Old Boys to win39% · @2.66
Double chanceNewells Old Boys or draw70% · @1.38
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals68% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 13.19
Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 12 April the Liga Profesional Argentina brings Newells Old Boys against San Lorenzo at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Newells Old Boys are 22nd, lower half, on 38 points after 32 matches; San Lorenzo are 18th (lower half) with 41. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Newells Old Boys, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Central Cordoba de Santiago, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
San Lorenzo, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Deportivo Recoleta, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours San Lorenzo, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Newells Old Boys.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newells Old Boys 1.1 xG, San Lorenzo 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newells Old Boys 39%, draw 31%, San Lorenzo 30%.
Lower-risk option: Newells Old Boys or draw (70%) at 1.38.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Newells Old Boys or draw (70%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newells Old Boys 1–0 San Lorenzo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newells Old Boys39%fair 2.55 · @2.66
Draw31%fair 3.20 · @2.80
San Lorenzo30%fair 3.39 · @2.96
2.01Expected goals
1.14Newells Old Boys xG
0.86San Lorenzo xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
0–013%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Newells Old Boys 1.1 – 0.9 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newells Old Boys to win
39%
2.55
2.66
Double chance
Newells Old Boys or draw
70%
1.42
1.38
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Newells Old Boys (draw no bet)
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
San Lorenzo +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
58%
1.71
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
85%
1.17
1.11
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
93%
1.07
1.03
First team to score
Newells Old Boys to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newells Old Boys / FT Newells Old Boys
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
13.19
–
Recent results
Newells Old Boys – last 6
WLLDLL
6 Apr
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
3–1
W
30 Mar
vs Acassuso
0–2
L
17 Mar
@ Lanus
0–5
L
11 Mar
vs Platense
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Estudiantes L.P.
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Banfield
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
San Lorenzo – last 6
DWDWLD
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
1–1
D
21 Mar
vs Deportivo Rincon
5–0
W
16 Mar
vs Defensa Y Justicia
2–5
L
11 Mar
@ Boca Juniors
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newells Old Boys and San Lorenzo.
What is the prediction for Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo?
Our pick is Newells Old Boys or draw with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo?
On our numbers Newells Old Boys have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 31% and San Lorenzo 30%.
How many goals will there be in Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo?
Our predicted score is Newells Old Boys 1–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo?
Newells Old Boys vs San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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