Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVelez Sarsfield to win ✗40% · @2.56
Double chanceVelez Sarsfield or draw ✓71% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.56
San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
San Lorenzo welcome Velez Sarsfield to Pedro Bidegain for a Liga Profesional Argentina fixture on Monday 20 April (23:30 WAT). In the table, San Lorenzo are 18th, lower half, on 41 points after 32 matches; Velez Sarsfield are 6th (upper half) with 56. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
San Lorenzo, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Deportivo Cuenca, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Velez Sarsfield, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Central Cordoba de Santiago, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Lorenzo 0.9 xG, Velez Sarsfield 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Lorenzo 29%, draw 30%, Velez Sarsfield 40%.
Lower-risk option: Velez Sarsfield or draw (71%) at 1.35.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Velez Sarsfield or draw (71%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Lorenzo 0–1 Velez Sarsfield. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Lorenzo29%fair 3.42 · @3.15
Draw30%fair 3.30 · @2.78
Velez Sarsfield40%fair 2.47 · @2.56
1.97Expected goals
0.86San Lorenzo xG
1.11Velez Sarsfield xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 0.9 – 1.1 Velez Sarsfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Velez Sarsfield to win✗
40%
2.47
2.56
Double chance
Velez Sarsfield or draw✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
Velez Sarsfield (draw no bet)
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
San Lorenzo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.11
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
1.03
First team to score
Velez Sarsfield to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Velez Sarsfield / FT Velez Sarsfield✗
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.56
–
Recent results
San Lorenzo – last 6
WDWDWL
17 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
1–1
D
21 Mar
vs Deportivo Rincon
5–0
W
16 Mar
vs Defensa Y Justicia
2–5
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Velez Sarsfield – last 6
WWLDWD
14 Apr
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–0
W
7 Apr
vs Deportivo Armenio
4–1
W
3 Apr
@ Gimnasia M.
2–3
L
10 Mar
@ Tigre
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Lorenzo and Velez Sarsfield.
What is the prediction for San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our pick is Velez Sarsfield or draw with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Velez Sarsfield 40%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 0–1 Velez Sarsfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield?
San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 20 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Pedro Bidegain.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Sarmiento Junin1
Barracas Central0
Belgrano Cordoba0
Banfield0
Independ. Rivadavia0