Velez Sarsfield 47%Draw 26%Union Santa Fe 27%Expected goals 1.52 – 1.04
67%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 57% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVelez Sarsfield to win ✗47% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.75
Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:45 WAT, Monday 27 April: Velez Sarsfield v Union Santa Fe in the Liga Profesional Argentina, played at Jose Amalfitani. In the table, Velez Sarsfield are 6th, upper half, on 56 points after 32 matches; Union Santa Fe are 16th (lower half) with 42. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Velez Sarsfield, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with San Lorenzo, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Union Santa Fe, last 5: LWDDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Newells Old Boys, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Velez Sarsfield 1.5 xG, Union Santa Fe 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Velez Sarsfield 47%, draw 26%, Union Santa Fe 27%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.49, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Union Santa Fe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Velez Sarsfield47%fair 2.11 · @2.20
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.00
Union Santa Fe27%fair 3.74 · @3.50
2.56Expected goals
1.52Velez Sarsfield xG
1.04Union Santa Fe xG
57%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Velez Sarsfield 1.5 – 1.0 Union Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Velez Sarsfield to win✗
47%
2.11
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Velez Sarsfield (draw no bet)
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Union Santa Fe +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.04
First team to score
Velez Sarsfield to score first
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Velez Sarsfield / FT Velez Sarsfield✗
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.75
–
Recent results
Velez Sarsfield – last 6
DWWLDW
20 Apr
@ San Lorenzo
0–0
D
14 Apr
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–0
W
7 Apr
vs Deportivo Armenio
4–1
W
3 Apr
@ Gimnasia M.
2–3
L
10 Mar
@ Tigre
1–1
D
2 Mar
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Union Santa Fe – last 6
LWDDWW
18 Apr
vs Newells Old Boys
2–3
L
31 Mar
vs Agropecuario
2–0
W
16 Mar
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
10 Mar
@ Independiente
4–4
D
1 Mar
@ Instituto Cordoba
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Sarmiento Junin
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Velez Sarsfield and Union Santa Fe.
What is the prediction for Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
On our numbers Velez Sarsfield have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Union Santa Fe 27%.
How many goals will there be in Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Union Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?
Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 22:45 (West Africa Time) at Jose Amalfitani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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