Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bahia welcome Chapecoense-sc to Arena Fonte Nova for a Serie A fixture on Friday 17 July (23:30 WAT). In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Chapecoense-sc are 20th (in the drop zone) with 21. There are 32 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Bahia, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Fluminense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Chapecoense-sc, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Avai, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Chapecoense-sc, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Bahia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 2.3 xG, Chapecoense-sc 0.9 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 69%, draw 19%, Chapecoense-sc 12%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bahia to win (69%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 2–0 Chapecoense-sc. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia69%fair 1.45 · @1.45
Draw19%fair 5.31 · @4.60
Chapecoense-sc12%fair 8.15 · @6.20
3.17Expected goals
2.31Bahia xG
0.85Chapecoense-sc xG
57%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Bahia 2.3 – 0.9 Chapecoense-sc expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Attack vs Serie A average
+9%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+53%
Our expected goals here
2.54
0.90
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✓
69%
1.45
1.45
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Draw no bet
Bahia (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Bahia -1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.53
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.27
1.20
First team to score
Bahia to score first✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Bahia ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✓
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 6
LWLDLL
12 Jul
@ Fluminense
0–2
L
30 May
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
26 May
@ Coritiba
2–3
L
17 May
vs Gremio
1–1
D
14 May
@ Remo
1–2
L
10 May
vs Cruzeiro
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
LDLWLW
4 Jun
@ Avai
0–3
L
27 May
vs Novorizontino
2–2
D
24 May
@ Cruzeiro
1–2
L
20 May
@ Novorizontino
2–0
W
17 May
vs Remo
2–3
L
14 May
vs Botafogo
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Chapecoense-sc.
What is the prediction for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our pick is Bahia to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
On our numbers Bahia have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Chapecoense-sc 12%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our predicted score is Bahia 2–0 Chapecoense-sc, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc?
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
