Mirassol vs Santos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mirassol welcome Santos to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia for a Serie A fixture on Wednesday 11 March (01:30 WAT). In the table, Mirassol are 14th, lower half, on 40 points after 34 matches; Santos are 9th (upper half) with 47.
Current form
Santos, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Vasco DA Gama, at home. The attack is flying at 3.3 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mirassol 1.6 xG, Santos 1.2 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mirassol 51%, draw 25%, Santos 24%.
Lower-risk option: Mirassol or draw (76%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mirassol 1–1 Santos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mirassol51%fair 1.96 · @1.78
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.60
Santos24%fair 4.16 · @4.35
2.88Expected goals
1.64Mirassol xG
1.25Santos xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
2–07%
1–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.6 – 1.2 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mirassol
Santos
Attack vs Serie A average
-9%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-7%
Our expected goals here
1.30
1.25
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win✗
51%
1.96
1.78
Double chance
Mirassol or draw✓
76%
1.32
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.77
Draw no bet
Mirassol (draw no bet)
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Santos +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.11
First team to score
Mirassol to score first✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol✗
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.70
–
Recent results
Mirassol – last 1
L
16 Feb
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Santos – last 3
WLW
26 Feb
vs Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs Velo Clube
7–0
W
3.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Santos.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Mirassol vs Santos?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Santos 24%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Santos?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Santos?
Mirassol vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
