Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGremio to win ✗41% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.19
Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gremio travel to face Chapecoense-sc on Tuesday 17 March in the Serie A, with Arena Condá the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Chapecoense-sc are 20th, in the drop zone, on 21 points after 33 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Gremio, last 3: DWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with RB Bragantino, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chapecoense-sc 1.4 xG, Gremio 1.6 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 51% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chapecoense-sc 33%, draw 26%, Gremio 41%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chapecoense-sc33%fair 3.02 · @2.88
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.20
Gremio41%fair 2.46 · @2.45
2.95Expected goals
1.37Chapecoense-sc xG
1.58Gremio xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.4 – 1.6 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+53%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.23
1.46
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win✗
41%
2.46
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.80
Draw no bet
Gremio (draw no bet)
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Chapecoense-sc +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.08
First team to score
Gremio to score first
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gremio / FT Gremio✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.19
–
Recent results
Chapecoense-sc – last 2
LW
13 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Brusque
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 3
DWD
13 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico-MG
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gremio 41%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
