Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✗52% · @2.10
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.70
Corinthians vs Flamengo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Corinthians welcome Flamengo to Neo Química Arena for a Serie A fixture on Monday 23 March (00:30 WAT). In the table, Corinthians are 17th, lower half, on 37 points after 34 matches; Flamengo are 1st (leading the league) with 76. There are 39 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Corinthians, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Chapecoense-sc, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Flamengo, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over remo, at home. 3.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Flamengo, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.0 for Corinthians.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 0.9 xG, Flamengo 1.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 23%, draw 25%, Flamengo 52%.
Lower-risk option: Flamengo or draw (77%) at 1.28.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Flamengo to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Flamengo or draw (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 0–1 Flamengo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Corinthians23%fair 4.30 · @3.55
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.20
Flamengo52%fair 1.94 · @2.10
2.45Expected goals
0.88Corinthians xG
1.56Flamengo xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–112%
0–211%
1–29%
0–09%
1–08%
From our goals model: Corinthians 0.9 – 1.6 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Corinthians
Flamengo
Attack vs Serie A average
-15%
+54%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.92
1.82
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✗
52%
1.94
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)
69%
1.45
–
Asian handicap
Corinthians +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Flamengo to score first
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.70
–
Recent results
Corinthians – last 6
DDLLDW
20 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Santos
1–1
D
12 Mar
vs Coritiba
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Novorizontino
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Cruzeiro
1–1
D
19 Feb
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
WWWWWW
20 Mar
vs remo
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Botafogo
3–0
W
12 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–0
W
3 Mar
@ Madureira
8–0
W
27 Feb
vs Lanus
2–1
W
23 Feb
vs Madureira
3–0
W
3.5Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Flamengo.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Our pick is Flamengo or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Corinthians vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Flamengo 52%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Flamengo?
Corinthians vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
