Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓67% · @1.44
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.60
Palmeiras vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 3 April the Serie A brings Palmeiras against Gremio at Arena Barueri. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd, among the top four, on 73 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37. There are 36 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sao Paulo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Gremio, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Vitoria, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.8 for Gremio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 2.2 xG, Gremio 0.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 67%, draw 19%, Gremio 14%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Palmeiras to win (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 2–0 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palmeiras67%fair 1.49 · @1.44
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @4.20
Gremio14%fair 7.23 · @6.00
2.92Expected goals
2.19Palmeiras xG
0.73Gremio xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
3–09%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 2.2 – 0.7 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Palmeiras
Gremio
Attack vs Serie A average
+41%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
-42%
+2%
Our expected goals here
2.20
0.55
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
67%
1.49
1.44
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Palmeiras -1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.60
–
Recent results
Palmeiras – last 6
WWLWWW
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
5 Mar
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 5
WDDWD
19 Mar
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
17 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico-MG
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Gremio.
Our pick is Palmeiras to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Gremio?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Gremio 14%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 2–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Gremio?
Palmeiras vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Barueri.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
