Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMirassol to win ✓42% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.85
Mirassol vs Corinthians: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mirassol welcome Corinthians to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia for a Serie A fixture on Monday 4 May (00:30 WAT). In the table, Mirassol are 14th, lower half, on 40 points after 34 matches; Corinthians are 17th (lower half) with 37. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mirassol, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Always Ready, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Corinthians, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Penarol, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mirassol 1.3 xG, Corinthians 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mirassol 42%, draw 27%, Corinthians 31%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mirassol 1–0 Corinthians. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mirassol42%fair 2.38 · @2.32
Draw27%fair 3.65 · @3.10
Corinthians31%fair 3.27 · @3.20
2.27Expected goals
1.29Mirassol xG
0.97Corinthians xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.3 – 1.0 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mirassol
Corinthians
Attack vs Serie A average
-9%
-15%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.44
0.96
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win✓
42%
2.38
2.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Mirassol (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Corinthians +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Mirassol to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol✓
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.85
–
Recent results
Mirassol – last 6
WLDWLW
29 Apr
vs Always Ready
2–0
W
26 Apr
@ Sao Paulo
0–1
L
23 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Internacional
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ LDU de Quito
0–2
L
8 Apr
vs Lanus
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Corinthians – last 6
WWDWWL
1 May
vs Penarol
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Barra
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Vitoria
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Santa Fe
2–0
W
10 Apr
@ Platense
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Internacional
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Corinthians.
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mirassol vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Corinthians 31%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–0 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Corinthians?
Mirassol vs Corinthians (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
