Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vasco DA Gama welcome Atletico Paranaense to Estádio São Januário for a Serie A fixture on Monday 11 May (00:30 WAT). In the table, Vasco DA Gama are 13th, lower half, on 41 points after 33 matches; Atletico Paranaense are 5th (upper half) with 54. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over A. Italiano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: DDLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Gremio, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vasco DA Gama 1.7 xG, Atletico Paranaense 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vasco DA Gama 52%, draw 25%, Atletico Paranaense 23%.
Lower-risk option: Vasco DA Gama or draw (77%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vasco DA Gama52%fair 1.92 · @1.92
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.35
Atletico Paranaense23%fair 4.33 · @3.95
2.86Expected goals
1.72Vasco DA Gama xG
1.14Atletico Paranaense xG
53%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–08%
0–17%
1–26%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.7 – 1.1 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
Attack vs Serie A average
+8%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+15%
Our expected goals here
1.90
1.37
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win✓
52%
1.92
1.92
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.85
Draw no bet
Vasco DA Gama (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.08
First team to score
Vasco DA Gama to score first✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama✓
31%
3.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.36
–
Recent results
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WWWLDL
6 May
@ A. Italiano
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Olimpia
3–0
W
22 Apr
@ Paysandu
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs A. Italiano
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Barracas Central
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Botafogo
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
DDLWWL
3 May
vs Gremio
0–0
D
24 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico Paranaense 23%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
