Mirassol vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 18 July the Serie A brings Mirassol against Gremio at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Mirassol are 14th, lower half, on 40 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mirassol, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Atletico Paranaense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Gremio, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Cruzeiro, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mirassol 1.4 xG, Gremio 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mirassol 48%, draw 26%, Gremio 26%.
Lower-risk option: Mirassol or draw (74%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mirassol 1–0 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mirassol48%fair 2.08 · @1.96
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.30
Gremio26%fair 3.92 · @3.85
2.41Expected goals
1.45Mirassol xG
0.97Gremio xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
2–09%
2–19%
0–09%
0–19%
From our goals model: Mirassol 1.4 – 1.0 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mirassol
Gremio
Attack vs Serie A average
-9%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.43
0.94
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win✓
48%
2.08
1.96
Double chance
Mirassol or draw✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
1.85
Draw no bet
Mirassol (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.53
–
Asian handicap
Gremio +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Mirassol to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol✓
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.03
–
Recent results
Mirassol – last 6
LLWWWW
30 May
@ Atletico Paranaense
0–1
L
26 May
@ Lanus
0–1
L
23 May
vs Fluminense
1–0
W
20 May
@ Always Ready
2–1
W
14 May
vs RB Bragantino
2–1
W
7 May
vs LDU de Quito
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
WLDWDW
12 Jul
vs Cruzeiro
3–1
W
30 May
vs Corinthians
1–3
L
26 May
vs Atletico Torque
2–2
D
21 May
vs Palestino
2–0
W
17 May
@ Bahia
1–1
D
14 May
@ Confiança
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mirassol and Gremio.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mirassol vs Gremio?
On our numbers Mirassol have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gremio 26%.
How many goals will there be in Mirassol vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Mirassol 1–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mirassol vs Gremio?
Mirassol vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
