Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultBotafogo to win ✓59% · @1.70
Double chanceBotafogo or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Botafogo vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Wednesday 16 September: Botafogo v Gremio in the Serie A, played at Estádio Nilton Santos. In the table, Botafogo are 11th, lower half, on 42 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37.
Current form
Botafogo, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with RB Bragantino, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Gremio, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Vasco DA Gama, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Botafogo 1.8 xG, Gremio 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Botafogo 59%, draw 24%, Gremio 17%.
Lower-risk option: Botafogo or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.71, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Botafogo 1–1 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Botafogo59%fair 1.70 · @1.70
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.50
Gremio17%fair 5.76 · @4.50
2.73Expected goals
1.83Botafogo xG
0.90Gremio xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.8 – 0.9 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Botafogo to win✓
59%
1.70
1.70
Double chance
Botafogo or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.75
Draw no bet
Botafogo (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Gremio +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Botafogo to score first
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Botafogo ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Botafogo / FT Botafogo✗
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Recent results
Botafogo – last 6
DDLLWL
13 Sep
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Palmeiras
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Flamengo
0–3
L
25 Aug
vs Atletico Paranaense
2–3
L
21 Aug
vs Cienciano
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Vitoria
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
LLWWDL
12 Sep
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Vitoria
0–1
L
4 Sep
vs Internacional
3–1
W
30 Aug
vs Chapecoense-sc
3–1
W
28 Aug
@ Internacional
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ RB Bragantino
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Botafogo and Gremio.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Botafogo vs Gremio?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gremio 17%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Gremio?
Botafogo vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
