Chapecoense-sc 21%Draw 22%Vasco DA Gama 58%Expected goals 1.13 – 1.89
63%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.45
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
Picks by market
ResultVasco DA Gama to win58% · @1.59
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw79% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.64
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.16
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 November the Serie A brings Chapecoense-sc against Vasco DA Gama at Arena Condá. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Chapecoense-sc are 20th, in the drop zone, on 21 points after 33 matches; Vasco DA Gama are 13th (lower half) with 41. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Chapecoense-sc, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Mirassol, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Palmeiras, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vasco DA Gama, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.5 for Chapecoense-sc.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chapecoense-sc 1.1 xG, Vasco DA Gama 1.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chapecoense-sc 21%, draw 22%, Vasco DA Gama 58%.
Lower-risk option: Vasco DA Gama or draw (79%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.64.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chapecoense-sc21%fair 4.82 · @5.05
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @4.05
Vasco DA Gama58%fair 1.74 · @1.59
3.02Expected goals
1.13Chapecoense-sc xG
1.89Vasco DA Gama xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–36%
2–16%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.1 – 1.9 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chapecoense-sc
Vasco DA Gama
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
+53%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.27
1.89
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win
58%
1.74
1.59
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw
79%
1.26
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.65
1.64
Draw no bet
Vasco DA Gama (draw no bet)
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Chapecoense-sc +1.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
58%
1.72
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
63%
1.58
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
80%
1.26
1.16
First team to score
Vasco DA Gama to score first
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
LLWLLL
3 Nov
vs Mirassol
1–2
L
28 Oct
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
24 Oct
vs Fluminense
2–1
W
17 Oct
@ Botafogo
0–1
L
12 Oct
vs Atletico Paranaense
1–4
L
8 Oct
@ Vitoria
0–4
L
0.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WWLLWL
8 Nov
vs Palmeiras
2–1
W
4 Nov
@ Atletico Paranaense
3–1
W
1 Nov
@ Palmeiras
0–1
L
30 Oct
vs Flamengo
1–4
L
24 Oct
vs Corinthians
3–2
W
21 Oct
vs Boca Juniors
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vasco DA Gama 58%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama?
Chapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
