Value bet: Santos to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSao Paulo to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.12
Sao Paulo vs Santos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Saturday 3 October: Sao Paulo v Santos in the Serie A, played at Morumbi. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Santos are 9th (upper half) with 47. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Internacional, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Santos, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Remo, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.5 xG, Santos 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 45%, draw 23%, Santos 32%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Santos to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 1.83). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–1 Santos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo45%fair 2.21 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.20
Santos32%fair 3.12 · @3.50
2.65Expected goals
1.47Sao Paulo xG
1.18Santos xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.5 – 1.2 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✗
45%
2.21
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Draw no bet
Sao Paulo (draw no bet)✗
59%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Santos +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Sao Paulo to score first
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.12
–
Recent results
Sao Paulo – last 6
WDLLWW
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Palmeiras
0–2
L
9 Sep
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs RB Bragantino
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Santos – last 6
WLWWWD
19 Sep
@ Remo
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
2–4
L
13 Sep
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
9 Sep
vs Atletico-MG
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Internacional
3–2
W
3 Sep
vs Palmeiras
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Santos.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Santos?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Santos 32%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Santos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Santos?
Sao Paulo vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Morumbi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
