Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.65 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗41% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.97
Fluminense vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fluminense welcome Palmeiras for a Serie A fixture on Saturday 15 August (20:30 WAT). In the table, Fluminense are 4th, among the top four, on 57 points after 34 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd (among the top four) with 73. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Fluminense, last 5: DDLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Independ. Rivadavia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Palmeiras, last 5: DDLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cerro Porteno, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Feb 2026) it ended Palmeiras 2–1 Fluminense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fluminense 1.2 xG, Palmeiras 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fluminense 35%, draw 24%, Palmeiras 41%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Palmeiras to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fluminense 1–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fluminense35%fair 2.88 · @2.72
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.10
Palmeiras41%fair 2.43 · @2.65
2.46Expected goals
1.16Fluminense xG
1.30Palmeiras xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Fluminense 1.2 – 1.3 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Fluminense have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Palmeiras 41%.
How many goals will there be in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Fluminense 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
