Value bet: Gremio to win @ 3.40 – our chance 37% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVitoria to win ✓40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.25
Vitoria vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vitoria welcome Gremio to Barradao for a Serie A fixture on Tuesday 8 September (00:00 WAT). In the table, Vitoria are 15th, lower half, on 38 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Vitoria, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Vasco DA Gama, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Gremio, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Internacional, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Gremio, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Vitoria.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Mar 2026) it ended Gremio 2–0 Vitoria.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vitoria 1.3 xG, Gremio 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vitoria 40%, draw 23%, Gremio 37%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Gremio to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 1.83). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vitoria 1–1 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vitoria40%fair 2.47 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.20
Gremio37%fair 2.71 · @3.40
2.45Expected goals
1.26Vitoria xG
1.19Gremio xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Vitoria 1.3 – 1.2 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Vitoria vs Gremio?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gremio 37%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Vitoria 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vitoria vs Gremio?
Vitoria vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Barradao.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
