Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Monday 12 October: Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A, played at Arena Condá. In the table, Chapecoense-sc are 20th, in the drop zone, on 21 points after 33 matches; Atletico Paranaense are 5th (upper half) with 54. There are 33 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Chapecoense-sc, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Vitoria, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: DWDLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Atletico-MG, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Atletico Paranaense, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Chapecoense-sc.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chapecoense-sc 1.2 xG, Atletico Paranaense 1.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chapecoense-sc 29%, draw 22%, Atletico Paranaense 49%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chapecoense-sc29%fair 3.43 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.30
Atletico Paranaense49%fair 2.04 · @2.00
2.89Expected goals
1.22Chapecoense-sc xG
1.67Atletico Paranaense xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.2 – 1.7 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✓
49%
2.04
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.75
Draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)✓
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Chapecoense-sc +1 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Atletico Paranaense to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✓
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.58
–
Recent results
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
LDDLWL
8 Oct
@ Vitoria
0–4
L
26 Sep
@ Atletico Nacional
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Internacional
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Corinthians
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Gremio
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
DWDLDW
9 Oct
vs Atletico-MG
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Bahia
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Coritiba
3–3
D
6 Sep
@ Cruzeiro
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Fluminense
3–3
D
25 Aug
@ Botafogo
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Paranaense 49%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
