Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
2
Value bet: Gremio to win @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCoritiba to win ✗40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.93
Coritiba vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 26 October the Serie A brings Coritiba against Gremio at Estádio Couto Pereira. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Coritiba are 12th, lower half, on 42 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37.
Current form
Coritiba, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Atletico-MG, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Gremio, last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Cruzeiro, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Coritiba 1.4 xG, Gremio 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Coritiba 40%, draw 23%, Gremio 38%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Gremio to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.66, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Coritiba 1–1 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Coritiba40%fair 2.51 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.25
Gremio38%fair 2.66 · @3.20
2.66Expected goals
1.35Coritiba xG
1.31Gremio xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Coritiba 1.4 – 1.3 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Coritiba to win✗
40%
2.51
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.70
Draw no bet
Coritiba (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Gremio +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Coritiba to score first✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Coritiba / FT Coritiba✗
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.93
–
Recent results
Coritiba – last 6
LDLLDL
17 Oct
@ Atletico-MG
0–1
L
12 Oct
vs Botafogo
1–1
D
9 Oct
@ Fluminense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–5
L
12 Sep
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–3
D
6 Sep
vs Mirassol
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
LDDDLL
18 Oct
vs Cruzeiro
2–4
L
11 Oct
vs Internacional
1–1
D
7 Oct
@ Remo
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Palmeiras
0–0
D
16 Sep
@ Botafogo
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coritiba and Gremio.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Coritiba vs Gremio?
On our numbers Coritiba have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gremio 38%.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Coritiba vs Gremio?
Coritiba vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 26 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Couto Pereira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
